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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023
 
Recent SSMIS and GMI microwave images reveal that Adrian has
developed a well-defined eye, although that feature is obscured in
conventional visible and infrared satellite imagery by the Central
Dense Overcast (CDO).  This structure indicates that Adrian has
become a hurricane, and the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a
blend of the most recent objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates.  Based on this estimate, Adrian has rapidly
intensified during the past 24 hours.  Upper-level outflow is
slightly restricted within the northeastern quadrant, and a
slight offset of the low- and mid-level eyes in the microwave
data suggest there could be some mid-level northerly shear affecting
the hurricane.
 
Adrian is moving westward, or 270/7 kt, to the south of a
mid-tropospheric ridge which extends westward from northern Mexico.
This ridge is expected to weaken during the next 2 days as a
mid-level trough develops west of the Baja California peninsula,
and this should cause Adrian to slow down further and turn toward
the west-northwest by 48 hours.  Although the ridge restrengthens
north of Adrian by day 4, the hurricane may begin to interact with
another weather disturbance (EP92) to its east, and the track
models respond by showing Adrian becoming nearly stationary or
meandering by the end of the forecast period.  That said, there is
less-than-normal spread among the track models, and the NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous prediction.
 
Model guidance suggests that mid-level shear could continue to
affect Adrian, otherwise the deep-layer shear remains low for the
next 48 hours.  Along with water temperatures of around 28 degrees
Celsius, these conditions should allow Adrian to strengthen
further. However, easterly shear is forecast to increase in earnest
by 48 hours, and the updated NHC intensity forecast therefore shows
faster weakening after that time (although it is still above the
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids).  Adrian is now shown as a
post-tropical remnant low by day 5 due to the expected effects of
continued shear and cooler waters.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 15.2N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 15.4N 109.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 15.6N 110.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 15.8N 112.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 16.1N 113.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 16.4N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 16.8N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 17.4N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 17.5N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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