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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023
 
Adrian has had several convective bursts in the inner core 
throughout the overnight period, particularly on the eastern side. 
However, the eye is still not very well defined, with the system 
struggling to wrap deep convection around western side. Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB have increased 
slightly from the last advisory cycle, thus the initial intensity 
of 75 kt.

Adrian is moving westward, or 285/7 kt, south of a mid-level 
ridge.  This ridge is forecast to weaken the next 2 days,
which will slow the storm's forward motion. Towards the end of the 
forecast period the ridge weakens further, and the hurricane may 
begin to interact with Tropical Depression Two-E to its east. 
As this happens, the track model guidance shows Adrian meandering 
or becoming stationary by the end of the forecast period. The track 
forecast is very close to the previous forecast.

Adrian will remain in a fairly favorable environment for the next 
day or so, with guidance indicating low vertical wind shear, and 
warm SSTs near 28 degrees Celsius. Therefore, some slight 
additional strengthening is forecast in the short term.  By 48 
hours, models show increasing easterly shear over the system, 
associated with an upper-level high building to the north.  Adrian 
will also be moving into cooler SSTs during this time frame, the 
combination of cooler SST and vertical wind shear should cause 
weakening. The official intensity forecast is near the model 
consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 15.5N 109.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 16.0N 112.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 16.3N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 16.6N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 16.9N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 17.2N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0600Z 17.7N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Beven
 
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