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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023
 
Early morning AMSR2 microwave images of Adrian revealed a 
well-defined eye signature in the 89 GHz and 37 GHz channels, 
although a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level centers 
suggests some vortex tilt with height. In conventional satellite 
imagery, the deepest inner-core convection is confined to the 
southern and eastern portions of the circulation, while cloud tops 
have recently warmed to the northwest of the center. Subjective 
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and 
the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory.
 
Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear through this 
evening could allow for some additional strengthening. Then, Adrian 
is forecast to encounter stronger easterly shear as it moves over 
gradually cooler waters, which is likely to induce weakening by this 
weekend and early next week. The official NHC forecast lies slightly 
above the IVCN consensus aid in the near term, then shows more rapid 
weakening beyond 48 h. Unfavorable environmental conditions should 
make it difficult for Adrian to sustain organized convection beyond 
72 h, and Adrian is forecast to be a remnant low at days 4 and 5.

Adrian is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt to the south of a 
mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. This 
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days 
with little change to the overall steering pattern. The center of 
Adrian was relocated slightly farther north based on the early 
morning microwave data, and the updated NHC forecast lies to the 
right of the previous one in the direction of the TVCE/HCCA aids. 
The latest track guidance also keeps Adrian on a more steady 
westward course through the forecast period. As a result, this 
forecast is somewhat faster than previous issuances at days 3-5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 16.0N 110.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 16.2N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 16.6N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 17.8N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 18.1N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1200Z 18.0N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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