ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The overall satellite presentation of Adrian has improved this morning. The eye is embedded deeper within a more symmetric central dense overcast and surrounded by a ring of deep convection with infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -60 deg C. Recent SSMIS microwave images reveal a well-defined mid-level eyewall, although some vertical tilt is noted between the 91 GHz and 37 GHz channels, which suggests Adrian may be experiencing some easterly shear. The initial intensity is a bit more uncertain than normal given the large spread in the satellite intensity estimates, which range from 77-102 kt. Based on the improved satellite structure, the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this advisory. This lies in between the subjective SAB and TAFB Dvorak estimates, and is in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT estimates. The hurricane is forecast to cross the 26 deg C SST isotherm and encounter increased easterly shear during the next 12 to 24 h. Therefore, the official NHC forecast shows gradual weakening in the near term, followed by more rapid weakening as the cyclone becomes increasingly sheared and moves over even cooler waters. Adrian will likely struggle to produce organized convection beyond 48 h given these hostile conditions, and it is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter and dissipate by early Wednesday. Adrian has recently been moving more northwestward, and its initial motion is 305/6 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move generally west-northwestward during the next couple of days, around the southwestern periphery of mid-tropospheric high pressure centered over the southern United States. As Adrian loses deep convection and becomes more vertically shallow, the remnant low is expected to turn more westward on Monday within the low-level trade wind flow. Once again, the center of Adrian and the latest track guidance has trended to the right of the previous forecast, and so the updated NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.3N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.6N 115.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.0N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 19.2N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z 19.4N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN