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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023
 
The satellite structure of Adrian looked its best shortly after the
time of the previous advisory. Since then, the eye has become
obscured by clouds in visible satellite imagery. Although deep
convection still surrounds the ragged eye, infrared cloud top
temperatures have been gradually warming, and the central dense
overcast has become more asymmetric over the past few hours. It
appears that vertical wind shear is finally taking a toll on the
hurricane, and the objective satellite estimates have leveled off or
begun to decrease this afternoon. The initial intensity is held at
90 kt, in best agreement with a blend of recent UW-CIMSS SATCON, 
ADT, and AiDT estimates.
 
Adrian is forecast to cross the 26 deg C SST isotherm tonight and
move over 23 deg C SSTs within the next couple of days. In addition,
the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate easterly shear that
should continue to disrupt its vertical organization. Therefore,
weakening is anticipated during the next several days. The global
and regional models indicate that the cyclone will struggle to
produce organized convection by Sunday. Therefore, the official NHC
forecast shows remnant low status at 48 h and dissipation by day 4.
 
The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 310/6 kt. A
general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over
the next couple of days as Adrian is steered by a mid-level ridge
centered over the southern United States. As the cyclone weakens
and spins down, it should turn westward within the low-level trade
wind flow until it dissipates. Based on the latest track guidance
and consensus aids, the updated NHC forecast has once again been
nudged to the right of the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 17.7N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 18.2N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 18.7N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 19.1N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 19.5N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  03/0600Z 19.7N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z 19.7N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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