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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
300 AM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Adrian's structure on both microwave and geostationary satellite has 
continued to deteriorate overnight. While a small cluster of deep 
convection remains, it is becoming increasingly separated to the 
northwest of the low-level center which is becoming exposed on 
nighttime GOES-18 shortwave-IR imagery. An earlier F-16 microwave 
pass at 0020 UTC also showed this increasingly detached convection, 
possibly a result of increasing easterly vertical wind shear 
decoupling the vertical structure of Adrian. Subjective satellite 
intensity estimates are quickly decreasing, though the CI numbers 
are constrained by the Dvorak technique. The initial intensity has 
been set to 70 kt for this advisory, closer to unconstrained data-T 
Dvorak values from TAFB and SAB, in addition to experimental D-PRINT 
and AiDT intensity estimates provided by UW-CIMSS. Adrian is now 
over sub-26 C sea-surface temperatures, which cool to below 24 C in 
24 hours, and steady to rapid weakening is likely to continue. The 
latest intensity forecast is in line with the intensity consensus, 
with both regional-hurricane and global model guidance suggesting 
Adrian will become a post-tropical cyclone devoid of deep convection 
by Sunday. 

Adrian continues to move west-northwestward at a slightly slower 
pace than before, estimated at 300/6 kt. This general 
west-northwestward motion should continue, with a gradual turn 
westward as Adrian becomes a shallow cyclone steered by the 
low-level trade wind flow. Aside from some initial position 
adjustments southward, the track forecast is quite similar to the 
prior advisory, following the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 18.1N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 18.5N 114.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.4N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  03/0600Z 19.6N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/1800Z 19.6N 119.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0600Z 19.5N 121.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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