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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023
 
Adrian continues to weaken. The low-level center is decoupled from
a limited area of active convection over the western portion of
the circulation. Adrian is passing just to the north of Clarion
Island, and a Mexican Navy automated weather station has recently
reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a gust of 48 kt.
The objective and subjective satellite estimates have continued to
fall this afternoon, with T3.0 Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and
SAB along with ADT, AiDT, and SATCON objective estimates between
47-53 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to
50 kt for this advisory.
 
The storm is still moving west-northwestward at around 300/6 kt. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected over the next couple of
days as the vortex spins down and becomes increasingly steered by
the low-level trade wind flow. Further weakening is expected due to
continued easterly shear, decreasing SSTs, and a drier and more
stable air mass along the forecast track. The official NHC forecast
now shows Adrian degenerating to a remnant low in 24 h, with
dissipation early next week. This updated forecast is very similar
to the previous one with no other notable changes.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 18.7N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 19.1N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.6N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0600Z 19.9N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1800Z 20.0N 119.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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