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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023
 
Adrian continues to gradually weaken. Satellite imagery shows the 
center remains decoupled from the region of active convection, 
located in the northwest quadrant. The center is now to the 
northwest of Clarion Island, where a Mexican Navy automated weather 
station shows 20-kt sustained winds. The Dvorak Data T-number from 
TAFB is lower at 2.5/35 kt, and the estimates from the CIMSS 
ADT and SAB also support a weaker intensity. With this information, 
the initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt for this advisory.

Adrian is moving west-northwestward at approximately 305/7 kt. The 
tropical cyclone is expected to turn more westward as it becomes 
more influenced from the low-level subtropical ridge. The system is 
predicted to enter a region of even drier air with decreasing 
sea-surface temperatures, which should contribute to continued 
weakening for the remainder of the forecast. Adrian is forecast to 
transition to a remnant low by tomorrow night with total dissipation 
expected in the early part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 19.2N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.6N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 20.1N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1200Z 20.3N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0000Z 20.2N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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