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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low 
pressure area off the coast of southern Mexico has become better 
organized during the past several hours, with convective bands 
forming near the center and an outer band in the northern 
semicircle near the coast. Based on this, the system is being 
designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity is 30 kt in 
agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 310/12 kt.  This general motion is expected 
to continue for the next 3-4 days as the cyclone moves between a 
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and Hurricane 
Adrian to its west and southwest.  After that time, a more westward 
motion is expected as the weakening system is steered by Adrian 
and a low-level ridge to its northwest.  The new NHC forecast track 
is similar to the previous track and in good agreement with 
the consensus models.  However, there is some uncertainty in both 
the track and the forward speed, and it is possible the center 
could come closer to the coast of Mexico than currently forecast. 

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening, as the cyclone 
should be in an environment of light- to moderate easterly shear 
and high mid-level moisture for the next few days.  In addition, 
the sea surface temperatures are at or above 30C along much of the 
forecast track during that time.  The various rapid intensification 
indices of the SHIPS model show a significant chance of rapid 
development during the next 2-3 days, although the system may be too 
close to the coast of Mexico to fully take advantage of the 
favorable environment.  After 72 h, decreasing sea surface 
temperatures along the forecast track should cause a quick 
weakening.  The official intensity forecast follows the trend of the 
guidance and is near the intensity consensus.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Punta San Telmo, and
tropical storm conditions should begin within this area by Thursday
afternoon.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of
7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from the state of
Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco.  These rains could lead to
localized flash flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 14.0N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 15.0N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 16.0N 101.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 17.1N 102.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 18.5N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 19.8N 106.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 21.0N 107.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 22.5N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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