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Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
 
Beatriz continues to move along the coast of southwestern Mexico 
with the core of the hurricane now approaching Manzanillo. Although 
the center remains just offshore, numerous rainbands are inland and 
likely producing hurricane and tropical storm conditions along the 
immediate coast.  The hurricane is quite compact with its outer 
tropical-storm-force wind field estimated to extent only up to 80 n 
mi from the center.  The initial initial intensity is held at 75 kt, 
but this could be a little generous and is above the subjective 
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
The future intensity of Beatriz is quite dependent on how much the 
hurricane interacts with land.  Most of the global models show the 
system weakening significantly or dissipating entirely as soon as in 
24 hours due to the interaction with land.  However, if the storm 
manages to stay offshore, it will likely weaken at a much more 
gradual pace.  The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous 
one and shows dissipation occurring a little sooner, trending toward 
the latest global model solutions.
 
The hurricane continues to move northwestward at 10 kt on the 
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  This general motion 
should continue during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the core of 
Beatriz along or just offshore of the coast of southwestern and 
west-central Mexico.  After that time, assuming the storm survives, 
a slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected.  The NHC 
track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and a little to 
the south of the consensus aids.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Beatriz is forecast to remain a hurricane through early 
Saturday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous 
storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  A 
Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the coasts of 
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western
Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of
Sinaloa and Durango.  These rains could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 18.4N 103.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 19.5N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 20.6N 106.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 21.4N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 21.8N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 22.0N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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