ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 The center of Beatriz brushed the coast of Mexico near Punta San Telmo back around 0000 UTC, and since then the cyclone has steadily lost organization. Earlier microwave satellite imagery shows that the eye has disappeared, while scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data suggest that the surface circulation has become less well defined. In addition, surface observations in and around Manzanillo have not been supportive of a well-defined circulation in the area. Based on these observations and an accompanying decrease in the satellite cloud pattern, the initial intensity is reduced to an uncertain 55 kt. Although Beatriz will be moving away from the coast of Mexico later today, the dynamical models suggest that the cyclone will not recover from the effects of land interaction, with most of them forecasting the system to dissipate to 2-3 days time or less. The new NHC intensity forecast is notably lower than the previous forecast and calls for the system to weaken to a depression by 60 h and dissipate soon thereafter. There is a chance that Beatriz could weaken faster than currently forecast. The initial motion is estimated at 315/11 kt as the cyclone continues to move along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. This general motion should continue during the next 12-24 hours, taking the core of Beatriz along or just offshore of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this morning. After that time, assuming the storm survives, a slower and generally west-northwestward motion is expected. The NHC track forecast is similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of western Mexico today. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 19.4N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 20.5N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 22.1N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 22.4N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 22.6N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN