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Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023
 
It's a bit of a mystery if Beatriz still has a surface circulation
this morning.  Microwave data and UW-CIMSS's animated MIMIC-TC
product suggest that a center of rotation, at least in the middle
levels of the atmosphere, is now located just off the coast of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico, and that position closely matches an
extrapolated position from previous forecasts.  The system is still
producing deep convection around this center feature, although
satellite intensity estimates have been decreasing fast.  The
initial intensity is lowered to an uncertain 45 kt.
 
Beatriz may have sped up slightly overnight, but the longer-term
motion remains northwestward (315 degrees) at 11 kt.  A weakening
mid-level ridge over northeastern Mexico should keep Beatriz on a
northwestward path, at a slower speed, during the next 24 hours.
On Sunday and Monday, the low- to mid-level steering currents
collapse, and Beatriz or its remnants are likely to drift toward
the west-northwest or meander over the mouth of the Gulf of
California.  Since many of the global models show Beatriz already
having dissipated, there were relatively few model trackers
available for this forecast.  In general, the NHC track forecast is
close to a blend of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.
 
With Beatriz's severely disrupted circulation and less favorable
atmospheric conditions, continued weakening is expected.  The
ECWMF, UKMET, and Canadian model fields indicate that Beatriz's
circulation may have already dissipated, while the GFS shows a
circulation winding down and dissipating in 2-3 days.  The NHC
intensity forecast shows faster weakening than the previous
prediction, with degeneration into a remnant low by 48 hours.
However, it's possible that advisories could be discontinued at any
time if we receive data that shows the circulation has dissipated
and the system is no longer producing tropical-storm-force winds.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions along the west-central coast of Mexico
are forecast to diminish this afternoon as Beatriz begins to move
away from the area.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western
Mexico from Colima northwestward to Sinaloa and Durango.  These
rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 20.4N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 21.4N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 22.2N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 22.5N 108.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 22.7N 108.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0000Z 22.7N 109.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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