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Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Through this morning and afternoon, the system we have been 
monitoring several hundred miles offshore to the south of the coast 
of Mexico has improved in organization on satellite imagery, with 
plenty of curved convective bands along its northern semicircle. A 
couple of bulls-eye ASCAT passes earlier this afternoon indicated 
that a closed circulation had formed at the surface, with believable 
25-30 kt winds on its northern flank. We also received a subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.0/30-kt from TAFB this afternoon. 
The aforementioned data supports initiating advisories on the system 
as a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.

The initial motion of the depression is north of due west at 280/12 
kt. A prominent mid-level subtropical ridge is located poleward of 
the cyclone and is expected to move westward with the system 
throughout the forecast period. The orientation of the ridge ahead 
of the system may even result in a west-southwestward motion by the 
middle to latter part of this week. The track guidance is in fairly 
good agreement, especially for a system that has only recently 
formed, though some speed differences exist towards the end of the 
forecast period. The initial NHC track forecast has opted to remain 
close to the reliable consensus aids, roughly in between the faster 
HCCA and slower TVCE guidance. 

Environmental conditions appear quite favorable for intensification 
over the next few days. Both the GFS- and EC-based SHIPS guidance 
shows deep-layer vertical wind shear remaining 10 kt or below 
throughout the forecast period as sea-surface temperatures 
underneath the system remain above 28 C for the next 3 days. While 
there will likely be some mid-level dry air lurking near the system 
during this time-span, this may not harm the cyclone as much as 
just keeping its convective core small. In fact, most of the 
hurricane-regional models show the system significantly intensifying 
as a small tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The NHC 
intensity forecast follows this evolution, with significant 
intensification expected, especially between 36-72 h after the 
system has an opportunity to develop an inner core that takes better 
advantage of the favorable conditions. A period of rapid 
intensification during this time frame is also possible. This 
initial intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS 
guidance this cycle, and is roughly a split between the higher 
HWRF/HMON and lower HAFS-A/B runs. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 14.8N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 15.5N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 15.8N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 15.1N 114.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 14.3N 119.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 13.3N 125.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 12.7N 130.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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