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Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023
 
Tropical Depression Five-E is starting to become a little better 
organized this evening. Microwave AMSR and SSMIS passes showed that 
the center of the system has banding features over the northern and 
eastern side, with deep convection bursting from time to time. 
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 
T2.0/30-kt on this advisory cycle. Given these estimates, the 
initial intensity remains at 30 kt.
 
The initial motion of the depression is 290/12 kt. A mid-level 
subtropical ridge is located to the north of the system and is 
expected to continue to steer the cyclone generally westward. The 
ridge may strengthen some towards the end of the week, causing a 
south of west motion. The track guidance is fairly tightly 
clustered, and the forward speed of the corrected consensus 
guidance, HCCA, is now closer to the rest of the forecast aids this 
cycle. The NHC track is very similar to the previous forecast, with 
a slightly faster forward motion. 

The system is in an environment that appears favorable for 
intensification over the next few days. Vertical wind shear will 
remain low throughout the forecast period with warm sea-surface 
temperatures during the next several days. The cyclone is forecast 
to quickly intensify with a relatively small convective core. 
Intensity guidance has increased this cycle with SHIPS, HCCA, and 
the hurricane regional models showing significant strengthening 
over the next 24-72 hours. While a period of rapid intensification 
is becoming more likely during the next few days, it is difficult 
to pin down an exact time frame of when that may occur right now. 
The intensity forecast was raised from the previous advisory to 
account for some of the higher guidance this cycle, but still lies 
below the HCCA and most of the hurricane regional models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 15.5N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 15.9N 107.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 15.9N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 15.6N 112.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 15.2N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 14.7N 118.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 14.2N 121.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 13.3N 126.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 12.9N 132.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
 
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