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Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023
 
Dora continues to become better organized this afternoon. The storm
has maintained a well-defined curved band in its eastern semicircle
as a cold central dense overcast has persisted near the center.
Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained unchanged
this afternoon, but we also received an ASCAT-B pass at 1728 UTC
which showed a peak-wind retrieval of 51 kt. Due to the very small
size of the wind field seen from this scatterometer pass, it is
quite possible this value may be undersampling the storm's maximum
sustained winds. Therefore, the intensity was nudged upward to 55 kt
for this advisory.
 
Dora might be starting to make a gradual leftward turn, with the 
most recent estimated motion due west at 270/14 kt. There is not a 
ton new to report for the track forecast this afternoon, with a 
large mid-level ridge expected to build northwestward relative to 
Dora. This evolution should result in Dora turning 
west-southwestward beginning tomorrow and continuing through the end 
of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good 
agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous one, in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus 
approach (HCCA).
 
So far, Dora shows little signs of pausing its intensification rate 
this afternoon. Vertical wind shear remains very low (at or under 5 
kt) and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) remain very warm (29 C or 
warmer). Assuming dry air does not disrupt the small inner core that 
has formed today, rapid intensification (RI) appears likely for the 
next day or so. This expectation is supported by SHIPS-RII guidance 
from both the ECMWF and GFS, which show a 74 percent chance of a 35 
kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. These values are 
12-13 times above its climatological mean. Therefore, the latest NHC 
intensity forecast shows this rate of intensification over the next 
day, ultimately peaking Dora as a 110-kt category 3 hurricane in 48 
hours. This intensity forecast is not that far off the most recent 
HCCA intensity aid but is still a bit lower than the latest HAFS-A/B 
guidance. Thereafter, SSTs begin to drop down to 27 C and a modest 
increase in easterly shear may lead to some gradual weakening. 
Hard-to-predict inner core changes during this period may also 
result in some intensity fluctuations, possibly larger than shown 
here given how small Dora is forecast to remain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 16.1N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 15.9N 115.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 15.4N 117.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 14.5N 124.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 13.9N 127.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 13.2N 133.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 12.5N 139.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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