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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 01 2023
 
Dora continues to improve structurally on GOES 1-min satellite, and 
microwave imagery. An earlier AMSR microwave pass showed that Dora 
has developed a tight inner core with a convective band wrapping 
entirely around the center. The 36GHz microwave channel and visible 
satellite also depict what probably is the developmental stages of a 
tiny eye. Deep convection has persisted over the center, with cold 
cloud tops throughout the afternoon. Subjective intensity estimates 
from SAB and TAFB  were T3.5 and T4.0, respectively. Objective 
estimates from CIMMS AiDT and ADT range from 64 to 75 knots. Given 
the improved satellite trends, system structure and a blend of the 
various satellite estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 65 
kt for this advisory. This makes Dora the fourth hurricane of the 
eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The hurricane continues to move westward with a motion at 270/14 kt. 
There is not much change in the track forecast as guidance continues 
to be in good agreement. The large mid-level ridge north of the 
system is expected to build north-northwest, which will steer Dora 
westward with a gradual turn to the west-southwest tomorrow through 
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous one, and lies near the consensus aids.
 
Dora is rapidly intensifying this afternoon, with an increase of 35 
kt the last 24 hours. Vertical wind shear remains low and 
sea-surface temperatures are very warm for the next 36 hours, so 
rapid intensification is forecast to continue during that time, 
which is supported by the latest SHIPS-RII guidance from both the 
ECMWF and GFS.  The intensity forecast lies near the corrected 
consensus guidance, HCCA, through the next 72 hours. Afterwards, 
SSTs begin to drop down to 27 C and an increase in easterly shear 
may lead to some gradual weakening. The intensity guidance this 
cycle was much lower than the previous from 72 hours through the end 
of the forecast period, and thus the intensity guidance was lowered 
slightly through 120 hrs. The NHC forecast intensity is still higher 
than the consensus aids during this time frame, which showed further 
weakening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 16.2N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 15.8N 116.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 15.5N 119.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 15.0N 122.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 14.4N 125.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 14.0N 128.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 13.1N 134.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 12.7N 140.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
 
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