ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 01 2023
 
Dora is still rapidly intensifying and is well on its way to 
becoming a major hurricane.  An eye is apparent in microwave 
imagery and is beginning to show up in geostationary images as well. 
The current intensity has been boosted to 80 kt in agreement with 
the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, which is an 
increase of about 45 kt over the past 24 hours.  The system remains 
quite small, with a radius of maximum winds of 10 n mi or even less. 
The cirrus-level outflow pattern is quite symmetric and well 
defined.
 
Dora has been moving just slightly south of due west, or about 
260/14 kt.  A 500 mb ridge is well established to the north of the 
hurricane, and global model guidance indicates that the ridge 
should build westward over the next couple of days.  This steering 
scenario should result in a continued westward to 
west-southwestward motion over most of the forecast period.  The 
NHC track forecast lies between the latest simple and corrected 
consensus, TVCE and HCCA, guidance and is near or just a bit south 
of the previous official forecast.

The hurricane is moving over ocean waters with SSTs above 29 deg C 
and in an environment of weak vertical wind shear.  All 
indications are that the rapid intensification (RI) episode should 
continue for at least the next 24 hours.  This is supported by the 
various RI indices, for example the Deterministic to Probabilistic 
Statistical Model (DTOPS) which shows a 63 percent chance of RI for 
today.  One complicating factor for the intensity forecast is a 
possible eyewall replacement cycle which could slow Dora's rate of 
strengthening.  In 48 hours or so, some increase in easterly shear 
and a cooler waters are expected to induce gradual weakening.  The 
official intensity forecast is generally near the high end of the 
model guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 15.8N 112.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 15.7N 114.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 14.8N 120.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 14.4N 123.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 14.0N 126.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 13.5N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 12.9N 136.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 12.7N 142.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN