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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023
 
Dora continues to rapidly intensify this morning. Overnight infrared 
and first-light visible satellite imagery indicates that Dora has a 
small but tight inner core, with a pinhole eye starting to emerge 
from the central dense overcast cirrus. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 
850 UTC showed this tiny core structure well, though some residual 
dry air was still noted between the inner core and the curved 
banding on Dora's west side. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt form SAB, while the latest 
objective ADT estimate was 84 kt. Given the improvement in structure 
on satellite imagery since 1200 UTC, the initial intensity this 
advisory is set at 90 kt, on the higher end of those estimates. 

Dora continues to move just south of due west, at about 260/14 kt. 
The track reasoning has not changed much over the past day, with a 
well-established deep-layer ridge to the north of Dora expected to 
steer the system westward to west-southwestward for most of the 
forecast period. The latest NHC track continues to blend the simple 
and corrected consensus aids (TVCE and HCCA), and is nearly on top 
of the previous forecast track, if just a bit faster at the end of 
the forecast period.  

Dora is in the middle of a rapid intensification (RI) cycle, and 
most of the guidance suggests that RI should continue for the next 
12-24 h or so. Thus, the intensity forecast in the short-term was 
raised again, now showing a peak of 115 kt in 24 h. This intensity 
is just a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, but 
remains lower than the latest HAFS-A/B guidance. Afterwards, Dora's 
small inner core could begin to undergo structural changes, such as 
an eyewall replacement cycle. GFS-SHIPS guidance also shows easterly 
shear increasing over the system as sea-surface temperatures 
gradually decrease down to 27 C. A combo of these factors should 
result in some gradual weakening, which is reflected in the latest 
NHC intensity forecast beginning at 36 h, following the consensus 
aids most closely. However, the small size of Dora could make the 
system prone to more rapid intensity changes than reflected here.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 15.6N 114.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 15.4N 116.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 15.0N 119.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 14.1N 125.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 13.7N 128.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 13.3N 131.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 12.7N 138.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 12.5N 145.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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