ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

Microwave satellite data received between 12-14Z suggests that Dora 
has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.  In addition, the 
eye has been becoming more distinct during the past hour or two, 
although it is not much larger than the pinhole eye seen last night. 
Based on the satellite intensity estimates and the apparent 
eyewall replacement, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt.
 
The initial motion remains 265/16 kt.  As mentioned before, a 
well-established low- to mid-level ridge north of Dora is expected 
to maintain this general motion for the next several days. The 
track guidance, while tightly clustered, has shifted a little to 
the south from the previous advisory, and the forecast track is 
also nudged southward.  The new forecast track is close to the 
various consensus models.

The latest shear estimates and forecasts suggest the expected 
increase in easterly shear has not yet occurred. Based on this, 
there is probably a 6-12 h window for Dora to re-intensify as the 
eyewall replacement cycle ends, and the new intensity forecast 
shows modest intensification during that time.  After 12 h, 
increased shear and slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures along 
the forecast track should cause weakening through 48 h.  After 48 h, 
the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over water 
temperatures of 26-27C.  The intensity guidance during this time 
shows a more gradual weakening than during the 12-48 h period, and 
this part of the intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the 
guidance.  While the wind field of Dora may expand slightly due to 
the eyewall replacement, it is expected to remain a compact system 
that could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity 
fluctuations.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 14.4N 121.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN