ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 500 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023 Dora is experiencing some moderate easterly shear at this time. While the cyclone continues to generate cold cloud tops in the eyewall, the eye has become almost indistinct in infrared imagery. In addition, recently-received SSM/IS data shows decreased convection in the northeastern quadrant. There is a considerable spread in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates with a range from 95-115 kt. Based on the trends since the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 105 kt. The initial motion is still 265/16 kt, and the track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. A deep- layer ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to build westward and keep Dora on the same general trajectory for entire forecast period. The new track guidance has changed little from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous track. The current shear should persist for another 24 h or so, and after the shear lets up Dora will be moving over sea surface temperatures of 26-27C until about 96 h. Based on these and the intensity guidance, the intensity forecast through 96 h will show unsteady weakening, with faster weakening during the first 24 h and around 72-96 h when Dora is closest to cold water. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain by 120 h. The cyclone is supposed to move over warmer water and be in a light shear environment by that time. However, the dynamical guidance suggests continued weakening despite the apparently favorable environment. The 120-h forecast point will show continued weakening in deference to the dynamical models. It should be noted, though, that even while weakening Dora is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.0N 126.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 13.7N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 13.5N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 13.2N 139.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 13.0N 142.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 12.9N 146.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 13.0N 154.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 13.0N 162.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN