ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 27 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 500 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023 Dora remains a well-organized, compact and symmetric hurricane, moving west in the central Pacific. A blend of the subjective dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC combined with the objective estimates lends an initial intensity remaining at 120 kt. A partial SAR pass this morning showed winds on the northeast side near 90 kt, but may have missed some higher winds. Additional fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next several days as Dora continues a generally westward track along 27/28 C water, in a negligible wind shear environment. Satellite data shows significantly drier air several hundred miles north of Dora, which if it is ingested into Dora. A slightly more defined weakening trend is expected as some of that drier air is ingested into Dora in a couple days. The intensity forecast continues to follow the last few advisory packages for the first 36 hours, and remains a little higher than the model consensus. Starting with 48 hours, the forecast intensity has been lowered a bit to keep it in line with the overall pattern of the intensity models. As the system moves into a more unfavorable shear environment beyond day 4, additional weakening is likely. Very little change in the track forecast as models continue to be very tightly clustered through the week. Dora will move to the west along the southern edge of the ridge to the north, passing well south of Hawaii over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 12.7N 144.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.5N 147.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 12.2N 154.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 12.2N 158.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 12.4N 162.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 12.9N 165.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 13.9N 173.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 16.1N 179.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard NNNN