ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 29 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 500 AM HST Mon Aug 07 2023 The satellite presentation of Dora has degraded some overnight with the convective ring of cold dense overcast warming slightly. This is likely due to the ingestion of some drier mid-level air and possibly going through an eyewall replacement cycle. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC came in at 6.0 (115 kt), 6.5 (127 kt), 6.0 (115 kt) respectively, while the objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS were 105 kt and 109 kt. Using a blend of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt with this advisory. Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 20 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a deep layer ridge builds to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn to the northwest is forecast beyond day 3 as the tropical cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical ridge to the north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is expected to move into the western Pacific basin late this week. The forecast track is virtually a carbon copy of the previous advisory and is roughly a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus guidance and deterministic GFS and ECMWF guidance. The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora are generally conducive for maintenance of a very intense tropical cyclone during the next several days, with the exception of the mid- level dry air surrounding the system. Vertical wind shear will remain low during the next 4 days, while sea surface temperatures remain around 27C through around day 3. From day 3 onward, the SSTs increase into the 28/29C range, with vertical wind shear rising substantially by day 5. Although the satellite presentation of Dora has degraded slightly overnight, the continued annular appearance should prevent a rapid weakening of the system, and the official intensity forecast calls for a very slow and steady weakening trend during the next couple days. Beyond 48 hours, a slight increase in sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content may allow for some intensification of the tropical cyclone. As a result, the official intensity forecast has been increased slightly for days 3 and 4, with a rather sharp decrease in intensity shown by day 5 as increasing vertical wind shear should begin overwhelming Dora. This forecast is essentially a blend of the statistical and dynamical intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.4N 148.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.2N 151.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 12.0N 154.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 12.0N 158.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 12.2N 162.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 12.6N 166.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 13.1N 170.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 15.0N 177.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 17.0N 177.0E 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema NNNN