ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 500 AM HST Tue Aug 08 2023 Dora remains a powerful hurricane early this morning, with the tropical cyclone continuing to display annular characteristics. The eye has cooled slightly since the previous advisory, but it continues to be surrounded by a very cold dense overcast. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB were both 6.0 (115 kt). Meanwhile, the objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS were both 112 kt. Using a blend of these data the initial intensity has been held at 115 kt for this advisory. Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 19 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple days as a deep layer ridge builds north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn to the west- northwest is forecast beyond day 2 as the tropical cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical ridge north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is expected to move into the western Pacific basin Friday. The official forecast track is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and closely aligns with a blend of the consensus and reliable dynamical guidance. The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora appear conducive for maintaining a very intense tropical cyclone during the next several days, with the only potential negative factor being the surrounding dry mid-level air. Given the persistent annular appearance of Dora during the past several days, the dry mid-level air will likely have a difficult time being entrained into the system. Vertical wind shear will remain low during the next 3 days, before increasing considerably by days 4 and 5. Meanwhile sea surface temperatures will change little during the next 24 hours, remaining around 27C. Beyond 24 hours however, the SSTs will gradually increase into the 28/29C range, with ocean heat content values rising beyond 36 hours as well. The official intensity forecast shows a slow and gradual decrease during the next 24 hours, with the intensity then held steady through 60 hours. There is the potential that Dora could re-intensify in the 36 through 60 hour time frame due to the increase in SSTs and OHC, however this is not shown in the intensity forecast. By day 3, vertical wind shear should begin to impact the tropical cyclone, with a more drastic decline in intensity expected for days 4 and 5 as shear begins to overwhelm Dora. This forecast is weighted heavily toward the intensity consensus guidance through day 3, then trends toward a blend of the consensus and dynamical guidance for days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 11.5N 156.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 11.4N 159.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 11.5N 163.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 11.9N 166.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 12.5N 170.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 13.5N 173.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 14.7N 177.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 16.9N 177.0E 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 18.5N 171.5E 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema NNNN