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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 10 2023
 
Infrared satellite early this morning shows Hurricane Dora 
continuing to weaken since the annular structure of the cyclone 
diminished yesterday. Dvorak intensity estimates indicate a DT of 
5.0
with a CI of 6.5. ADT and AiDT indicate a current intensity of 
4.9/102 kt and 89 kt respectively. Dora is given an initial 
intensity of 105 kt for this advisory, a category 3 tropical 
cyclone. Dora has weakened 15 kt from the last advisory based on 
a change in storm structure allowing for the ingestion of drier 
air.
 
Initial motion with this advisory is 275/18 kt, only a slight 
decrease in forward speed. The track guidance remains tight through 
the next 36 hours, then spreads out after this point, particularly 
after 72 hours. Shifted the forecast track to the north of previous 
track and slowed it down, nudging toward the model consensus TVCE. 
Slow and recent increase in latitude indicates that Dora is reaching 
the southwest flank of the subtropical high to far to the north. 
Dora is forecast to continue gaining latitude and assume a 
northwest motion later today into Friday, becoming more northerly 
after Dora passes west of the date line late Friday into the 
weekend.
 
Warm water, with temperatures of 28 degrees C or above, lies along 
the entire forecast track and shear will remain less than 20 kt 
through tau 36. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF SHIPS shows a gradual 
weakening in intensity over the next 48 hours, then a more dramatic 
decrease after 48 hours as Dora gains latitude and shear increases. 
The updated forecast closely follows this guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 12.3N 171.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 13.0N 173.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 14.2N 176.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 15.6N 179.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 16.7N 177.7E   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 17.7N 175.2E   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 18.2N 172.8E   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 19.1N 168.5E   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 20.9N 164.6E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard
 
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