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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 10 2023
 
Dora has maintained a well-defined eye today, overcoming what 
appears to be slightly restricted outflow aloft within its eastern 
quadrant at times. The satellite presentation has changed little 
through the day, and all fix agencies gave a FT and current 
intensity of 5.5/102 kt, while CIMSS ADT rose to 107 kt just after 
0000 UTC. Given the steady appearance, the initial intensity of Dora 
has been held at 105 kt for this advisory, which represents a blend 
of the inputs.

The initial motion for this advisory is 290/17 kt. Dora continues 
to move toward the west-northwest along the southwest flank of deep 
high pressure to the north-northeast. This general motion will 
continue through the next 24 to 36 hours, with the forecast track 
following a tightly clustered guidance envelope. The forward motion 
of Dora will slow between 36 and 60 hours as the hurricane 
approaches a weakness in the ridge aloft produced by an upper level 
trough to the northwest. From 72 to 96 hours, Dora is forecast to 
remain on a similar slow west-northwest to track, followed by a turn 
toward the north-northwest at 120 hours. Guidance spread increases 
slowly from 36 to 60 hours, then significantly from 72 hours 
onward, likely due to differences in the depth of the cyclone and 
the strength of the upper level trough to the northwest. The 
forecast track lies close to the TVCN near the middle of the 
guidance envelope and has been changed little since the last 
package.

Dora continues to exceed expectations regarding intensity, due to 
its small size and an environment of light vertical wind shear and 
relatively warm water of around 28C. Given this history, the 
forecast holds Dora steady through the next 12 hours and remains 
near the higher side of the guidance envelope in showing only slow 
weakening through 36 hours. At 36 hours and beyond, the SHIPS 
guidance shows a sharp increase in vertical wind shear, and steady 
weakening is expected. The intensity guidance shows considerable 
spread during this time of steady weakening, with the statistical 
guidance showing a slower rate of weakening compared to much of the 
dynamical models. The forecast closely follows the ICON from 36 to 
96 hours and weakens Dora slightly more aggressively than the 
consensus at 120 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 13.2N 174.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 15.4N 179.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 16.6N 177.8E   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 17.5N 175.5E   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 17.9N 173.4E   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.2N 171.3E   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 19.3N 167.7E   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 21.2N 166.1E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
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