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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula has attained sufficient organization to be 
classified as a tropical depression.  The last couple of microwave 
satellite overpasses show a similar scenario, with cold 
convective curved bands becoming better organized around a low-level 
center, which appears to be located near the northern edge of the 
convective cloud mass based on recent visible satellite images. The 
latest TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T-2.0.  Based on these 
data, Invest 98E is upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven-E with an 
initial intensity of 30 kt.

Weak mid-level ridging well to the north of the depression will 
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt over the 
next few days.  Beyond 72 h, the ridge should strengthen enough to 
cause a turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed.  
The NHC forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCE 
consensus models.

Environmental conditions are quite favorable for strengthening over 
the next 48-60 h, with warm ocean temperatures, low vertical 
wind shear and a relatively moist low to mid-level troposphere. The 
NHC forecast peaks the system at 75 kt in 48-60 h, which is near 
the middle of the intensity guidance. The ECMWF version of the 
SHIPS RI index shows a 52 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in 
winds over the next 72 h, so there is a chance the cyclone could 
strengthen more than forecast. After that time, the cyclone is 
forecast to move into a much drier environment along with slowly 
decreasing sea-surface temperatures. There is high confidence on 
significant weakening beyond 72 h due to the very dry airmass that 
the cyclone will be moving into.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 14.9N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
 
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