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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the storm is producing more 
organized convection and curved bands now wrap about half way around 
the center. The system appears to be on a strengthening trend with 
visible satellite images showing a compact structure.  The initial 
intensity has increased up to 40 kt, which is slightly above the 
latest Dvorak estimates, making it a tropical storm.
 
Fernanda is moving to the west-northwest at about 9 kt. This general 
motion is expected to continue through the next few days at a slower 
pace as it moves towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Around 
mid-week, the system is anticipated to move more westward at a 
faster forward speed due to a strengthening ridge to its north. 
There is some spread in the models, especially at days 4 and 5, but 
they generally agree on the future track. No significant changes 
were made from the previous forecast.
 
Steady to rapid intensification is possible during the next 36 hours 
as Fernanda remains over warm 29C waters in low wind shear 
conditions. Fernanda could reach a peak intensity around 80 kt 
Monday and Tuesday, and some models suggest a slightly higher 
strength. By late Tuesday, the system is expected to move over 
cooler waters and into a drier environment which should lead to a 
weakening trend. The new NHC forecast shows the intensity increase 
at a faster rate during the next 24 to 36 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 15.0N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 15.3N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 15.7N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 16.0N 118.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.4N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  15/1200Z 16.9N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 17.3N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 17.7N 128.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 17.8N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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