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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023
 
Fernanda has lacked convective activity since yesterday evening and 
is therefore considered a post-tropical cyclone.  With no 
convective activity, Dvorak estimates are no longer a reliable 
source for intensity guidance.  The initial intensity is lowered to 
30 kt for this advisory largely based on the trend in geostationary 
satellite imagery.  An occasional burst of convection is still 
possible given 25-26 degrees C sea surface temperatures along the 
forecast track of Fernanda. Model guidance indicates the cyclone 
will continue to weaken in an increasingly dry and stable 
environment for the next few days and is likely to dissipate by 
day 3. 

The remnant low is moving westward at 13 kt.  This general motion 
is expected to continue for the next few days as the system is 
steered by the low-level flow around a ridge to its north.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Those 
forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO 
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 16.4N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  18/0000Z 16.4N 134.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1200Z 16.4N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z 16.3N 141.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  20/0000Z 16.4N 144.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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