ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082023 500 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the far western portion of the east Pacific basin has become a tropical depression. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago revealed that the system has a well-defined circulation and recent infrared satellite images indicate that deep convection has been persisting near and to the west of the center. Based on the ASCAT data and Dvorak estimates of T1.5 and T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The depression is moving west-northward at 12 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as the system remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast and moves toward a weakness in that ridge. Beyond a few days, a turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system moves in the low- to mid-level flow. The models are in good agreement and show this system moving well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The depression is in generally conducive conditions to strengthen during the next couple of days while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist and low wind shear environment. Beyond that time, however, increasing shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should cause a slow weakening trend. There is not a significant spread in the intensity models and none of them show this system reaching hurricane strength. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. The depression should cross into the central Pacific basin by 1200 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 11.4N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 11.5N 140.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 11.6N 142.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 11.9N 145.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 12.4N 147.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 13.0N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 13.6N 152.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 13.6N 157.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 12.9N 162.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN