ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 500 PM HST Sat Aug 26 2023 Invest 92-E has become better organized this evening as a curved band of deep convection has become established along the low's southwestern semicircle. Additionally, a well-defined center has been observed in the GOES visible satellite imagery along the edge of the curved band. Thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Ten-E. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based upon a blend of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak fixes and is consistent with the scatterometer winds observed this afternoon. While the system is currently located over quite warm waters with abundant moisture and low vertical wind shear, these conducive conditions will not last long. Along the projected forecast track, the sea-surface temperatures should lower below 26C as moisture decreases and convective instability diminishes in about 36 h. On days 4 to 5, the system should encounter even colder waters and drier conditions. Based on the above conditions, Ten-E is anticipated to only gradually intensify through 36 h, followed by gradual weakening until it is forecast to become a remnant low around day 4. The intensity forecast is based upon the a blend of the IVCN simple consensus and HFIP corrected consensus approaches, though none of the normally-reliable guidance suggests intensification to a hurricane for the system. Currently, the tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at around 8 kt, though the initial motion is uncertain due to Ten-E's recent formation. A longitudinally-extended mid-level ridge should continue the system's movement toward the northwest or west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed for the next couple days. As Ten-E begins to weaken, it should turn toward the west at a slower rate of speed while it gets steered by the low-level trades. There is significant along-track spread among the guidance. The GFS global model and HAFS-COAMPS hurricane models are substantially slower along the track, while the UKMET and ECMWF global models are substantially faster. This forecast is most similar to the HFIP corrected consensus technique, which leans a bit toward the latter track solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.1N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 16.8N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 18.2N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.4N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 18.4N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 18.1N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 18.2N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 18.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea NNNN