ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 27 2023 Irwin is struggling as a tropical cyclone. Although a small burst of convection has recently been noted near Irwin's center, little organized deep convection associated with the tropical storm has been observed during the past 12 h or so. SSTs under 26 deg C are likely responsible for Irwin's lack of deep convection. A pair of ASCAT passes around 0600 UTC did not capture the center of Irwin, but did sample an area to the cyclone's northeast where winds above 30 kt were noted. Allowing for some undersampling, Irwin's intensity remains 35 kt based on that data. Only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast, the most visible of which was moving up the point where Irwin will become post-tropical. While it is a little hard to believe based on Irwin's current lack of convective activity, all available dynamical models continue to indicate that Irwin will generate sufficient convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone for a couple more days. Regardless of Irwin's exact classification, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected as the large cyclone gradually spins down. Irwin is still expected to turn westward by tomorrow morning and then continue on that general heading for the next 5 days. The NHC track forecast remains on the south side of the model guidance, but is very close to the previous advisory official forecast track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.0N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 18.4N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 18.4N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 18.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 18.4N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 18.6N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN