ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Jova continues to look better organized on visible and infrared satellite imagery, with sharp curved banding on the south side of the system wrapping into the center. Deep convection has continued over the center with cold cloud tops near -80C. ASCAT and GMI microwave instruments both sampled Jova this afternoon, and indicated that the low-level center has redeveloped farther south than indicated in the previous advisory, under the burst of deep convection. The GMI 89-GHz microwave imagery depicted a mid-level eye-wall feature starting to develop. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were at T3.5 and T3.0, respectively, with this advisory, and objective ADT estimates were around 50 kt. Given the mid-level feature depicted on microwave imagery and the improved structure, the initial intensity leans toward the higher satellite estimates at 55kt. The initial motion is a little uncertain given the relocation of the low-level center, but an average motion is west-northwestward around 8 kt. Jova is forecast to continue on a general west-northwest motion the next several days along the southern side of a ridge extending westward over the southwestern United States. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, with the main differences being on the forward speed of Jova in the short term. The NHC forecast is shifted slightly south of the previous one, given the re-formation of the center southward, and lies near the consensus aids. Jova is in a favorable environment to rapidly intensify, with relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are quite high compared to the climatological mean, and the NHC forecast depicts rapid intensification. Jova is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday and into a major hurricane in about 36-48 h. The intensity forecast lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope given the favorable parameters and above climatological mean for RI, closest to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the forecast period, the system is forecast to move over a sharp SST gradient with much cooler ocean temperatures inducing a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake NNNN