ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 A new burst of deep convection has produced a nearly circular Central Dense Overcast over Jova's center, although a 0045 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that the convection favors the southwestern portion of the circulation due to moderate northeasterly shear. Still, Dvorak estimates have increased to T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and the various objective estimates have recently converged around 60 kt, which will be the initial intensity. Jova's intensity has increased by 30 kt over the past 24 hours, and thus rapid intensification is ongoing. Jova is situated to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching southwest of Mexico, and it continues to move toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 8 kt. The track forecast, and the forecast track, are both straightforward. Jova is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion around the southwestern periphery of the ridge, but at a faster forward speed as the distance between the two features decreases. No appreciable changes were made from the previous NHC forecast except to show a slightly faster motion, hedging toward the latest HCCA consensus solution. The moderate shear over Jova is expected to abate during the next 6-12 hours. In addition, water temperatures are between 29-30 degrees Celsius, mid-level relative humidities are near 80 percent, and upper-level divergence is forecast to be strong during the next day or two. All of these ingredients point to a recipe for continued rapid intensification, and many of the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS thresholds suggest it is likely to persist for another 36 to 48 hours, with Jova reaching major hurricane strength. That said, the regional hurricane models are much less enthusiastic about Jova's continued strengthening and show peak intensities no more than 70-75 kt. Given the seemingly conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast continues to favor the stronger solutions, and peaks Jova at category 4 intensity in 48 hours. Colder waters should induce weakening by day 3, continuing through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.2N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.9N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.8N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 15.6N 115.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.8N 117.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 18.1N 120.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 19.4N 122.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 24.2N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN