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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 07 2023
 
Jova appears to have halted its rather impressive intensification.
The central dense overcast has become more asymmetric, with deep
bursts of convection developing to the south of the circulation,
and the cloud top temperatures have generally warmed.  The initial
intensity is held at 140 kt to represent a blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates that range between
134-155 kt.
 
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for some 
additional strengthening.  However, structural changes such as the 
eyewall replacement cycles discussed in the previous advisory, may 
cause some short-term intensity fluctuations.  The NHC prediction 
still allows for some strengthening within 12 h before beginning a 
rapid weakening trend as the hurricane moves over increasingly 
cooler ocean waters and into a dry and stable airmass. By the end of 
forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model 
suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and official 
forecast shows Jova to be a post-tropical remnant low by day 5.
 
The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 14 kt around 
the edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.  The 
ridge is expected to be the dominate steering feature during the 
next few days and Jova should maintain the same general motion until 
the end of the forecast period.  At that point the weakening, 
shallow vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow.  The NHC 
track forecast has been shifted to the north slightly and is a bit 
slower than the previous prediction, still between the HCCA and TVCN 
consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 16.4N 114.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 17.3N 116.4W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 19.7N 121.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 20.9N 124.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 22.2N 126.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 23.4N 128.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 25.0N 130.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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