ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud tops have warmed in the eyewall of Jova. An earlier SSMIS microwave passed depicts that Jova is starting to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer concentric ring developing, and the inner core starting to collapse. In the past hour or so, hi-res GOES-18 1-minute imagery shows that the eye has become cloud filled, further confirming the microwave pass from earlier that Jova is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased slightly with this advisory between 130-140 kt. Given the current eyewall replacement cycle and warming cloud tops, the initial intensity for this advisory is 135 kt. With the beginning stages of an eyewall replacement cycle, Jova may experience some short-term intensity fluctuations. The NHC forecast predicts slow weakening while Jova undergoes these changes. By the time the eyewall replacement is complete, Jova will start to cross a sharp sea surface temperature gradient into cooler waters, and into a drier, more stable airmass. By the end of the forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and the official forecast shows Jova to be a post-tropical remnant low by day 5. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 14 kt around the edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The ridge is expected to be the dominate steering feature during the next few days and Jova should maintain the same general motion until the end of the forecast period. At that point the weakening, shallow vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the north between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.1N 115.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 18.0N 117.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 20.5N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.8N 125.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 23.1N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 24.2N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 25.4N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 25.3N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly/Camposano NNNN