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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023
 
Jova is continuing its weakening trend.  A microwave pass from 
around 0300 UTC still showed the remnants of a decaying eyewall 
surrounded by a larger secondary eyewall.  Recent geostationary 
satellite imagery show dry slots working their way towards the inner 
core and warming cloud top temperatures.  As a result, subjective 
and objective satellite estimates have been quickly decreasing. The 
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt, which represents a blend 
of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and 
SAB.
 
The hurricane is crossing over the 26 degree C isotherm and headed 
towards even cooler ocean waters.  Environmental conditions are also 
expected to become increasingly hostile during the next few days.  
The latest NHC forecast continues to show rapid to steady weakening 
and is similar to the previous advisory, though has been adjusted 
lower due to the decreased initial intensity.  Jova will likely be a 
remnant low by day 4, but this transition could occur sooner.
 
Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt.  This general motion 
is expected to continue for the next couple of days while Jova is 
steered by a ridge centered over the southwestern United States.  As 
convection collapses, the weaker vortex is forecast to turn westward 
to west-southwestward in the trade winds by the end of the forecast 
period.  The official track prediction has been shifted slightly 
northward of the previous advisory and is a little slower at day 3 
and beyond, keeping it close to the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 19.1N 119.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 20.0N 121.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 21.1N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 22.5N 125.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 23.7N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 24.6N 127.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 25.0N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 25.0N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0600Z 24.6N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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