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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023
 

Jova continues to weaken as it moves over cooler waters. An earlier 
microwave SSMIS pass showed that the inner core of Jova continues to 
erode with a secondary eyewall becoming the primary feature. GOES-18 
Hi-res 1-minute satellite imagery depicts dry slots continue to work 
their way into the inner core of the system. The drier air has also 
started to cause breaks in some of the banding features around Jova. 
As a result, subjective and objective satellite estimates have been 
quickly decreasing. The initial intensity has been set to 85 kt, 
which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak 
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
The hurricane is crossing a sharp sea surface temperature gradient 
into much cooler waters.  Environmental conditions also become less 
favorable over the next few days. The latest NHC forecast continues 
to show rapid to steady weakening and is similar to the previous 
advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system 
becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is now 
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time.
 
Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. This general motion 
is expected to continue for the next couple of days while the 
cyclone rounds the end of a ridge centered over the southwestern 
United States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn 
westward to west-southwestward into the low-level flow towards the 
end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close to 
the previous advisory, and lies near the consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 19.8N 121.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 20.7N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 22.0N 125.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 24.3N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 25.1N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 25.3N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z 24.8N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z 24.1N 133.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
 
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