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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023
 
This morning's satellite presentation consists of a deteriorating
cloud pattern with what remains of the deep convection confined to
the western half of the cyclone.  A blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 60 kt
for this advisory.
 
Jova is forecast to spin down slowly during the next few days,
while traversing decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and moving
into a high, statically stable surrounding environment.  Most models
indicate that Jova will lose its deep convection and become a
remnant low in 60 hours, which is shown in the NHC intensity 
forecast.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, 300/11 kt. 
The NHC forecast track philosophy remains unchanged.  Jova should 
continue to move generally toward that northwest within the 
southeasterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by subtropical high 
pressure that stretches from the southwestern U.S. across most of 
the eastern Pacific.  As Jova sheds its associated deep convection 
and degenerates to a vertically shallow cyclone, Jova is expected to 
decrease in forward speed and turn toward the west, and 
west-southwest within the easterly tradewind flow through 
dissipation.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 21.5N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 22.3N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 23.4N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 24.3N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 24.6N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 24.3N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 23.9N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z 22.7N 133.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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