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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023
 
Jova continues to deteriorate in latest satellite imagery. Dry air 
continues to work into this system, with deep convection starting 
to dissipate. Broken convective banding around the system is 
deteriorating with warming cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery 
A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates 
suggest an intensity of 55 kt, which is the initial intensity for 
this advisory.
 
Jova is forecast to continue weakening during the next several days 
as the system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a 
more stable airmass. Simulated satellite from the GFS and ECMWF 
suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant 
low in about 48 hours, this is reflected in the NHC intensity 
forecast. However, the transition to a remnant low could occur 
sooner than forecast.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 9 kt. Jova 
should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the 
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the southwestern United 
States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to 
west-southwestward into the low-level flow through the end of the 
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous 
forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 22.3N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 24.2N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 24.7N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 24.8N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0000Z 24.4N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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