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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023
 
Jova is maintaining some deep convection near the center, and some 
shallow convective banding features are still evident over the 
southeastern quadrant of the circulation.  Since the central 
convection has still not decreased much, the current intensity is 
held at 45 kt for this advisory.  This is above the subjective 
Dvorak estimates, but in general agreement with objective ADT values 
from UW-CIMSS.

The cyclone continues on a northwestward heading with a motion of 
about 315/8 kt, on the western periphery of a mid-level high 
pressure area.  As the system weakens further, it should be steered 
more by the low-level trade wind flow, and turn toward the east and 
east-southeast.  The official track forecast lies roughly in the 
middle of the track guidance suite.

It is a bit surprising the the system has been able to maintain 
deep convection this evening.  Since the storm will remain over 
cooler waters of 23 deg C or lower, however, weakening is likely 
and the system should degenerate into a remnant low by Monday.  
This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 23.7N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 24.3N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 24.8N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 24.9N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 24.6N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z 23.9N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z 23.3N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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