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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122023
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023
 
The tropical disturbance that we've been watching for a few days 
had a burst of vigorous deep convection overnight. Overnight 
microwave passes and satellite imagery over the last 24 hours have 
shown increased organization at times in the convective banding. The 
deep convection now appears to be persistent and organized enough 
to classify this system as a tropical depression. A blend of 
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CPHC suggest 
initiating advisories for this system with an intensity of 25 kt. 
More recently, visible satellite imagery is showing the low level 
center has emerged from the higher clouds associated with the 
convection.

UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Tropical Depression 12E is 
embedded within the southern periphery of a belt of stronger 
westerly shear, associated with the subtropical jet stream to the 
north. The depression is not likely to last long, as global models 
indicate the subtropical jet will sag south a bit over the next 
couple of days, maintaining westerly shear over the system. 
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests that 
occasional pulses of deep convection may continue for a day or so 
as the system is steered toward the west-southwest by the trade 
wind flow to the south of a strengthening subtropical ridge. The 
track forecast most closely follows the TVCN until the system 
becomes a remnant low far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 15.1N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster R Ballard
 
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