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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122023
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
500 PM HST Fri Sep 15 2023
 
Tropical Depression 12E has a fully exposed low level center. Deep 
convection is displaced about 60 nm to the east, in the face of 15 
to 20 kt of westerly shear as analyzed by the UW-CIMSS shear 
analysis. A blend of the satellite-based intensity estimates 
suggests maintaining a 25 kt intensity for this advisory.

The low level center has been moving rather erratically today as it 
decouples from the deep convection. A longer term initial motion 
estimate is 255/8, but it should be noted this is less certain than 
normal due to the wobbles seen today. 12E is expected to continue 
moving toward the west-southwest in the low level trade wind flow 
well south of a subtropical ridge. The official forecast has been 
nudged a bit to the south, in deference to the recent trends in low 
level motion after decoupling. Our forecast track is fairly close 
to the middle of the guidance envelope for the expected duration of 
the system.

Guidance suggests that over the next few days, the subtropical jet 
will sag south over the central Pacific, with a gradual increase in 
shear over the system. The low level center will be moving over 
slightly warmer sea surface temperatures over the next couple of 
days, which suggests that an intermittent bursts of deep convection 
will be possible, but significant reintensification seems unlikely. 
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF also agree 
with this idea. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low 
in about 36 hours, leading to dissipation in a couple of days far 
southeast of Hawaii.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 14.6N 136.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 14.4N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 14.1N 139.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 13.9N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 13.7N 142.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 
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