ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122023
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 15 2023
 
The depression is producing short-lived bursts of deep convection
well to the east of its center this evening.  Although this cloud
pattern lacks significant convective organization, it's been
sufficiently persistent to continue classifying the system as a 
sheared tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is held at 25 kt,
consistent with the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB.
 
Despite marginally warm oceanic surface temperatures along the 
depression's track, the cyclone is expected to continue struggling 
with intrusions of dry and stable mid-level air from its surrounding 
environment due to moderate westerly shear. Subsequently, the 
depression is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low within the 
next 24 hours or so.  This forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite infrared 
imagery.  The global models indicate that the remnant low will 
dissipate by Monday night far southeast of Hawaii, and the official 
intensity forecast follows suit.
 
The depression's initial motion is estimated to be
west-southwestward, or 255/7 kt.  This general motion south
of a strengthening low- to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge should
continue through the depression's dissipation.  The NHC forecast 
track is nudged closer to the TVCE and HFIP HCCA consensus models 
and is a little faster and to the south of the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 14.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 14.3N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 13.9N 140.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z 13.5N 142.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
NNNN