ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 SSMIS and GMI microwave overpasses from this morning around 13Z indicated that the cyclone was still quite disorganized. However, the satellite presentation has improved since that time. The earlier northeasterly to easterly shear appears to be abating. A 1714 UTC ASCAT-B pass confirms that the low-level center is underneath the central cold convective canopy and also shows tropical-storm-force winds up to 40 kt in the NW quadrant. Based on the ASCAT pass, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Kenneth with 40-kt winds. Based on fixes over the past 6 hours, the center appears to have reformed a bit to the west. The estimated motion is 280/14. A west-northwestward motion is expected through Wednesday night as the cyclone is steered by the trade wind flow. After that time, a potent mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest is expected to cause Kenneth to turn to the northwest or north-northwest. The track forecast was adjusted a bit faster and to the left of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the recent center reformation, which caused some of the simple consensus models to be farther west this cycle. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the higher initial intensity. Warm ocean temperatures, light northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear, and a moist low to mid-level troposphere currently surround the tropical cyclone. The system has perhaps 36 hours to strengthen while it remains in these relatively favorable environmental conditions. The cyclone is forecast to cross the 26C SST isotherm in about 48 h. The aforementioned approaching mid- to upper-level trough will induce strong southwesterly vertical wind shear on the cyclone beginning by 60 h. After that time, much drier air along with further decreasing ocean temperatures and increasing wind shear will lead to the cyclone losing its convection and becoming a remnant low in about 3 to 4 days. Global models show the system opening up into a trough by Day 5. Given the hostile conditions the cyclone will be moving into, the NHC forecast follows suit and calls for dissipation by Day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.1N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.9N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.4N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.4N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 19.0N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 20.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 22.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch NNNN