ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Deep convection has been increasing over the past several hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the northwest quadrant of Kenneth due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear. An ASCAT-C pass caught the western half of the circulation and showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, but it is possible that stronger winds exists east of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which is a near the average of the latest satellite intensity estimates that range from 30 to 45 kt. Kenneth could strengthen a little during the next day or so as the shear decreases. However, the opportunity for strengthening seems to end on Thursday when the storm moves into a region of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. These hostile winds aloft combined with dry air entrainment and progressively cooler SSTs should cause Kenneth to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low in a few days and dissipate shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but still lies at the high end of the guidance. The storm is moving westward at 9 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today as Kenneth nears the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. On Thursday, a turn to the northwest is forecast as Kenneth moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest. The models have trended left this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 14.8N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.4N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.0N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.8N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 19.4N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.3N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN