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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Lidia is experiencing a robust burst of convection very near the 
center of low-level circulation in the past couple of hours, but 
displays little overall change in appearance and organization since 
this morning. Shortly after the previous advisory the low-level 
center became exposed to the east of the deep convection on visible 
GOES-18 satellite. Within the past few hours, the low-level center 
is now under a deep burst of convection, allowing subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates this cycle from TAFB and SAB to remain at 
T3.0/45 kt. Thus, initial intensity remains at 45 kt for this 
advisory.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 6 kt. A 
mid-level ridge over Mexico will continue to steer the system 
north-northwestward during the next day or so. Afterwards, a ridge 
will build to the north of Lidia which will result in a slower 
forward motion and a turn towards the west through the remainder of 
the forecast period. There continues to be a large spread in the 
along-track guidance as the system turns westward. Most of the 
global models are faster, while the hurricane regional models and 
HCCA corrected consensus aid are slower. Therefore, there is 
increased uncertainty in the long range track forecast. The NHC 
track exhibits little change from the previous advisory, and lies 
between the faster global models and the slower regional models.
 
Models are in fairly good agreement that the moderate-to-strong 
easterly vertical wind shear will persist over Lidia the next 
several days. However, warm sea surface temperatures, a moist 
environment and upper-level diffluence will allow slow strengthening 
of the system. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
forecast, and the intensity forecast lies near the IVCN consensus 
aid.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 15.2N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 16.1N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 16.1N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 16.0N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 15.8N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 15.8N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 16.1N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 16.6N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Konarik
 
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