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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023
 
Lidia seems to gradually be getting better organized.  The estimated 
low-level center appears to be more closely aligned with the deepest 
convection, with cloud top temperatures of -90 degrees C.  Still, 
the majority of the convection is on the western portion of the 
circulation.  The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55kt and the initial wind speed is raised 
to 55 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving very slowly westward, at an estimated 270/2 kt. 
Lidia is being steered by the weak currents of a mid-level ridge 
located over Mexico.  As the ridge strengthens, the cyclone will 
continue to move westward at a slightly quicker pace for about the 
next day.  In a day or two, Lidia should begin to slowly turn 
northward as the ridge begins to retreat eastward.  By days 4 and 
5, the system should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of 
an upper-level trough.  The initial position needed to be adjusted 
slightly southward based on the last-light visible imagery showing 
the low-level spiral bands becoming more co-located with the deep 
convection.  This relocation shifted the official track forecast 
southward from the previous advisory, which still lies between the 
various consensus aids.  

In terms of the intensity forecast, the atmospheric and oceanic 
conditions are still mixed.  The upper-level winds are expected to 
induce moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear through the majority 
of the forecast period.  However, the warm sea surface temperature 
and relatively decent mid-level humdities create conducive 
conditions for strengthening.  The model guidance indicates this 
should lead to gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or 
so.  As the surrounding mid-level moisture decreases, the storm 
should slowly weaken between days 3 through 5.  The latest NHC 
forecast shifted the peak intensity to 48 h and lies a little above 
the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 15.8N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 15.9N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 15.9N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 16.0N 112.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 16.4N 113.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 16.8N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 17.3N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 18.6N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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