ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Lidia's satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours. Cloud tops remain very cold (-88 Celsius) and the cloud mass has increased with a primary curved banding wrapping around from the northwest to southeast side of the cyclone. Based on a recent GPM/GMI overpass, however, the center is still located near the northeastern edge of the convective canopy. Using a blend of the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the UW-CIMSS Deep Multi-spectral Intensity TC estimator (D-MINT) objective analysis, and the latest ATMS microwave intensity estimate, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt for this advisory. Although the 20-25 kt of easterly shear has continued to impinge on the eastern portion of the cyclone, the upper-wind pattern has become appreciably diffluent. This favorable contribution along with warm oceanic surface temperatures and a relatively moist surrounding atmosphere should support further strengthening during the next 48 hours. Afterward, a gradual weakening trend should commence due to increasing southwesterly shear and Lidia moving into a highly stable marine air mass. The official forecast shows Lidia becoming a hurricane a little sooner than the previous intensity forecast, and is based on a compromise of the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance. The center of Lidia has been difficult to pinpoint this morning, and Lidia is estimated to be moving in a somewhat uncertain direction and forward speed of 295/4 kt. The cyclone is being steered by weak mid-tropospheric flow produced by a subtropical ridge extending over the eastern Pacific from the west coast of central Mexico. Near the 60 hour period, Lidia is forecast to turn northwestward to north-northwestward while rounding the southwestern periphery of the ridge. By the 72 hour period, the system should turn northward to north-northeastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching Lidia from the northwest. The NHC track forecast adjusted a little to the north of the previous one due to the initial position adjustment, and closely follows the TVCE multi-model consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 16.2N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 16.4N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.6N 111.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.8N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 19.1N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 20.5N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN