ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Lidia continues to produce very intense convection. Cloud tops as cold as -95 deg C have been observed in the center of the main convective mass during the past few hours. However, microwave data from multiple polar-orbiting satellites during the past 6 hours indicate that Lidia's center is not co-located with this convection. Instead, the surface center appears to be displaced to the east, with the tropical storm tilted by continued easterly shear. Recent Dvorak estimates are not representative of this tilted structure, so the intensity estimate is based more on the UW-CIMSS DPRINT, DMINT, and SATCON techniques which incorporate microwave-based intensity information. Based on those, the intensity remains 60 kt for this advisory. Although Lidia is tilted, its center is still obscured by the cirrus canopy produced by its deep convection. Consequently, there is more uncertainty than normal with the tropical storm's center location. This is probably the largest source of uncertainty associated with Lidia's track for the next 2 to 3 days. Lidia should move slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then gradually begin to turn northward after that. After about 72 h, Lidia should begin to accelerate northeastward, steered by a shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. While the dynamical models agree quite well on this general forecast, there is quite a bit of disagreement on how fast Lidia will accelerate around day 4 and 5. The NHC official track forecast has been nudged eastward, and lies roughly halfway between the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Continued easterly wind shear should prevent significant strengthening during the next few days. That said, if the center can co-locate slightly better with the convection, even temporarily, some strengthening is possible. Beginning around 72 h, the upper-air environment will change, with the shear direction switching to westerly and upper-level difluence likely increasing. However, Lidia will be moving into a drier environment at the same time, and most intensity models do not show much change in the winds at that time, up or down. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is higher than the model consensus in the short term, in part out of respect to the higher-than-normal uncertainty associated with Lidia's initial position and strength. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.5N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.6N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.5N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 18.2N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 18.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN