ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Lidia continues to be relatively steady state this morning. Geostationary satellite images show little change in the convective pattern, and recent microwave data indicate that the system remains sheared with the low-level center located on the north side of the thunderstorm activity. There is a large spread in the latest satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 49-77 kt. Given the structure of Lidia in microwave data, the initial wind speed is held steady at 60 kt, closer to the lower end of the intensity estimates. The storm has been moving slowly north-northwestward at about 4 kt over the past 12-18 hours. A turn to the north should occur later today, followed by a considerably faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the cyclone. There is a fair amount of model spread on how sharply Lidia turns to the right and how quickly it moves toward the coast of Mexico. The NHC official track forecast has been nudged to the left, or north, at 48 and 60 h toward the latest consensus aids. Given the current structure of Lidia and ongoing mid-level shear, little change in strength seems likely during the next day or so. However, the models show a more favorable upper-level pattern developing over the system on Monday and Tuesday while it moves over 29-30 C SSTs. These conditions should allow Lidia to strengthen, and it is expected to reach the coast of Mexico by late Tuesday as a hurricane. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to the previous one. Based on the latest forecast, Hurricane Watches will likely be required for portions of west-central Mexico later today. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves toward the west-central coast of Mexico on Tuesday. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and heavy rain for the Islas Marias and portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Interests in these locations should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as watches will likely be required later today or tonight. 2. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.9N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 17.6N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 18.3N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 19.0N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 19.9N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 21.3N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 23.0N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN